Risk disclosure
This page uses the same measured figures published everywhere else on this site. It is written to be read, not to be scrolled past, because the single most common way a client loses money with a working system is by not understanding what a normal bad stretch looks like before it arrives.
1. You can lose money
Trading leveraged instruments carries a high risk of loss. Losses can exceed deposits in some account types. Leverage magnifies movement in both directions, and the direction is not knowable in advance.
2. Roughly one year in five ends down
Across 20,000 simulated one-year runs at 1.00% risk per trade, 80.5% finished in profit. The remainder — close to one in five — did not. In the worst five percent of those runs the balance finished at -22.0% against where it started.
| One-year outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Worst 5% of runs | -22.0% |
| Lower quartile | +5.7% |
| Median | +30.9% |
| Upper quartile | +62.2% |
| Best 5% of runs | +121.0% |
3. Drawdowns of about a quarter of the balance are normal
A drawdown is the fall from a previous peak before a new one is reached. The median one-year run gave back 24% at some point. The worst five percent gave back 41%.
Concretely: an account that grows from $1,000 to $1,300 and then falls back to below $1,000 has done nothing unusual. If watching that happen would cause you to close the account, the expected long-run outcome does not apply to you, because you will not be there for it.
4. Consistency has a mathematical ceiling
This system’s measured Sharpe ratio is 1.02. That figure — not effort, not monitoring — determines how often results are positive. At this level, four to five months in an average year finish below where they started. No configuration change alters that; it is a property of the return distribution.
5. These are backtested figures, not a live track record
Every number published on this site is derived from simulation over 2,745 recorded trades between 2021-09-08 and 2026-09-03. Live trading is recent. The live sample is currently far too small to confirm or contradict the simulated distribution, and we will not present it as though it does.
6. The statistical edge is suggestive, not settled
The measured edge is 0.0611 R per trade with a t-statistic of 2.27. That statistic is inflated by selection: the instruments traded were chosen from a substantially wider search, and a wider search produces a better-looking best result even when no genuine effect exists. A broader test across thousands of candidate configurations produced no survivors after correcting for multiple comparisons. We publish that because it is true, not because it helps.
7. Simulation assumptions and their limits
- Runs are drawn independently, which does not model the tendency of poor stretches to cluster. Real drawdowns can therefore run deeper than the published percentiles.
- Costs modelled include measured broker spread, five points of slippage per side, and overnight financing charged per night held. Spreads widen during news beyond what a constant assumption captures.
- Where a single price bar touched both the stop and the target, the loss is assumed. This is deliberately pessimistic.
- Execution slippage on a live account, broker downtime and requotes are not fully represented in historical simulation.
8. Longer holding periods change the odds, not the risk
Over five years, 97.3% of simulated runs finished in profit, with a median of +290.4%. This improves with time because results compound and short-term variance averages out — it does not mean any individual year is safe, and money that may be needed at short notice should not be committed.
9. Operational and counterparty risk
- Managed accounts. Funds remain with your broker, in your name, and are subject to that broker’s solvency and terms. Kestrel places and manages trades and holds no withdrawal rights.
- Pooled accounts. Funds are held in the operator’s trading account and are subject to the operator’s solvency, the broker’s solvency, and the manual withdrawal process set out in the terms.
- Technical failure — connectivity loss, platform outage, or a fault in the system — can prevent a position being opened, managed or closed as intended.
10. No guarantee
Nothing on this site is a promise of profit, and no figure published here should be read as one. Past performance, whether simulated or realised, does not predict future returns. Nothing on this site constitutes personal investment advice; it does not take account of your circumstances, objectives or tolerance for loss.
If any part of this page is unclear, do not deposit until it has been explained to your satisfaction.