Projection calculator
What an amount would have become — and what it would have cost you along the way.
Three outcomes, always shown together: the bad one, the likely one and the good one. Beside them, the odds of finishing in profit and the decline you would have had to sit through to get there. The figures come from 2,745 tested trades across 10 instruments between September 2021 and September 2026, resampled — they are history, not a forecast.
Left in for the whole period. Nothing added, nothing withdrawn.
Only periods present in the tested record are offered. Nothing in between is estimated.
Starting with $10,000 held for 1 year. Pessimistic $7,798. Typical $13,088. Optimistic $22,101. Ended in profit 80.51 percent of paths. Median drawdown 23.85 percent, severe drawdown 41.36 percent.
Ending balance after 1 year
After the 5% performance fee
5th percentile. One path in twenty finished below this.
Median. Half of paths finished above, half below.
95th percentile. One path in twenty finished above this.
Ended in profit
80.51%
Median drawdown
23.85%
Severe drawdown
41.36%
Over 1 year, 19.49% of paths ended below where they started. Drawdown is the deepest peak-to-trough fall along the way: the median path gave back 23.85%, and one path in twenty gave back at least 41.36% before finishing. That decline is part of the result, not an exception to it.
These are backtested projections, not promises.
The ranges describe how a tested record of 2,745 trades across 10 instruments, from Sep 2021 to Sep 2026, behaved when resampled. That is a description of the past. Past results do not predict future returns, no outcome shown here is guaranteed, and none of it is investment advice.
Every figure is net of the 5% performance fee, charged on profit only. Losing outcomes sit inside these ranges deliberately — the pessimistic column and the drawdown figures are the result, not a footnote to it.
Method: IID bootstrap, 20,000 paths, 1.00% risk per trade, 5% performance fee on profit only.